Description: This presentation made up Sessions 1 and 2 at the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The presenters discuss cash flow analysis in light of the valuation actuary concept. Asset and liability cash flows are looked at under different economic scenarios. Future interest rates, investment and reinvestment strategy are included in the discussion of scenario generation. Stochastic scenarios and the number of scenarios are discussed.

Description: This presentation is a Teaching Session, number 3, from the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The first instructor discusses three methods of valuation [and methods of studying C-3 risk]: Gross Premium Valuation [the actuary’s traditional approach], Cash Flow Analysis, and Market Value Analysis, also known as ‘Modern Financial Analysis,’ with a focus on the third. Then the second instructor provides an update on C-2 risk [claims, expenses], and combinations of risk, noting that C-2 risk has not had much attention paid to it. He goes on to describe three types of C-2 risk: stochastic deviations, unpredictable single events, and ‘judgment errors, such as poor underwriting. The third instructor focuses on the C-1 [default] risk. Case studies are included.